The minutes from the last FOMC meeting gave its economic forecast for
growth, unemployment and inflation. They modestly raised its 2nd half
’09 GDP estimate but trimmed its ’10 GDP range. They expect the
unemployment rate to reach above 9% from below 8% previously. Their
inflation forecasts were little changed. The rest of the minutes focused
on the less negative data points we’ve seen but at the same time focused
on the risks that remain.With respect to their asset purchases, they
agreed that the “purchases were providing financial stimulus that would
contribute to the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a
context of price stability.” They agreed to remain on pace with the
amounts previously stated but “some members noted that a further
increase in the total amount of purchases might well be warranted at
some point to spur a more rapid pace of recovery,”but they’ll wait and
see how things play out.
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