Are we there yet? Yes kids, in about 8 hours. The S&P 500 will see its first quarterly gain since Q3 ’07, a streak of 6 negative quarters in a row, the longest since 1969-1970 and its on track for the best quarterly performance since Q4 1998. Overseas markets have similar stats with Japan in particular having its best quarter since Q3 1995. If only we had an offseason, just like in sports, to enjoy the victory but we don’t. Q3 begins with a bunch of important economic data not only in the US but overseas and it will begin tonight with Japan’s Tankan report and China’s key manufacturing numbers. With home prices the key determinant in the direction of the US economy and health of the banking system, the April S&P Case/Shiller index is out today and is expected to fall 18.6% y/o/y. Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence will also be released. The euro is near a one month high vs the $ after German jobs data was better than expected. Also of interest today will be Fed President Bullard’s speech on exit strategies at 12pm. We should all hope that the strategies include not just the tools of getting it done but also a mechanism to decide the right time.
Miller Tabak + Co.