Yes folks, another month has ticked by, and once again, its time for the monthly BLS data dump.
The consensus of Wall Street economists is for losses of 525,000 newly furloughed workers, with Unemployment rate ticking over 9% for the first time in a quarter century. We are likely to see a 10 handle, and possibly an 11, before all is said & done.
I never imagined that in my lifetime, we would be rooting for half a million job losses, thinking this was — relatively speaking — a good number.
If you want a clue as to the future, the 3 things to watch closely are 1) Hours worked; 2) Temp Help; and 3) trailing revisions to past data.
I have these questions for the green shoots crowd: Are firings decelerating? Has Housing and construction stabilized? When will hiring commence?
When you can answer those questions positively, we will be much closer to the end of the recession.