An emailer asks: “Why do you diss the monthly numbers when they are improving?”
Well, because they are not really improving, if you understand the seasonality associated with them.
Let’s have a look at the monthly numbers relative to these seasonal trends. They ALWAYS improve from January through the Summer, as this is the prime season (many families want to be settled in the new house before the new school year begins in September) with actual improvements
The chart below makes it clear that the overall trend is seasonally driven:
Home Sales Trend, 2005-2009 (NSA)
chart courtesy of Calculated Risk