The final June UoM confidence # rose to 70.8 from the initial reading and forecast of 69 and up from 68.7 in May. It is now at the highest level since Feb ’08 but the gain from the preliminary # was all in the Outlook component which rose to 69.2 from 65.4 (preliminary June #) while Current Conditions fell 1.3 points to 73.2 in preliminary reading. However, from May, current conditions rose 5.5 points while the Outlook was down a hair. Current conditions stand at the highest level since Sept ’08 while the Outlook is just shy of its highest since Oct ’07. One year inflation expectations were 3.1%, in line with the preliminary survey but up from 2.8% in May and at the highest level since Oct ’08. Today’s confidence survey stands in contrast to Wednesday’s ABC poll which fell to within one point of a record low dating back to 1985. With today’s # being a phone survey conducted within the past few days, it is a very timely indicator but only matters if it translates into a change in consumer behavior, rather than just with their thoughts. In Europe earlier, French consumer confidence rose to the most since March ’08.
Peter Boockvar
Managing Director
Equity Strategist
Miller Tabak + Co.
Office: 212-370-0346
