Video-o-rama: Roller-coaster ride into the long weekend
The holiday-shortened week saw investors pondering the depth of the economic rabbit-hole. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession.
The highlights of the week’s discussions were captured on video and are included in this week’s video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff was a star-studded cast including the likes of George Soros, Hugh Hendry, Dan Greenhaus, Paul Krugman, Bill Gross, Nassim Taleb, Jeff Immelt, Stephen Roach, Bob Prechter and Marc Faber.
As an aside, the weather in Europe – where I am spending two weeks with my family in Slovenia and Switzerland – has been characterized of late by endless thunderstorms. Strikingly, the economic mood is no less despondent than that of the holiday-makers trying to escape the ominous dark clouds. But wait, is that a forecast for better days ahead?
Elsewhere, the jail doors closed behind “evil” Bernie Madoff, sentenced to 150 years for his epic fraud.
The video clips kick off with Financial Times investment editor John Authers reviewing asset class movements of the past 12 months, and finishes with the delightful Yield curve mambo – swap spreads data pulled into Excel, mashed up a bit and set to music.
John Authers (Financial Times): A 12-month review
“John Authers, FT’s investment editor, reviews the last 12 months, looking across the asset classes, votality measures and default risks.”
Click here for the article.
Source: John Authers, Financial Times, July 1, 2009
The Wall Street Journal: Soros on market instability
“Soros Fund Management Chairman George Soros talks to WSJ Deputy Managing Editor Alan Murray about market instability and the difficulty for investors.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2009.
CNBC: Hendry – print more money to avoid bigger slump
“Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC.”
Source: CNBC, June 29, 2009.
Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker: Fill or kill – strong case we don’t need Geithner’s toxic debt scheme
“PPIP, the Public-Private Investment Program, is the government’s controversial plan to spur buying of banks’ toxic debt. Since Geithner first floated the scheme in late March, bank stocks have rallied sharply and most big financial services firms have raised capital via equity sales – thanks, in part, to optimism about the PPIP.
“The irony, of course, is the plan hasn’t gotten off the ground and is hamstrung, most notably, by banks’ reluctance to sell their ‘assets’ at what they consider rock-bottom prices.
“There’s a strong case to be made we don’t need the PPIP anymore, says Dan Greenhaus, an analyst in Miller Tabak’s strategy group. At the same time, banks are going to be even less willing to participate now, since they’ve raised capital and the economy has shown signs of stabilizing.
“If Geithner’s goal was simply to inject confidence into the system so banks could raise capital, then PPIP really was ‘the greatest program that never occurred’, as Goldman managing director Scott Romanoff described it, according to The WSJ. Viewed in this light, Geithner might be wise to kill the program altogether.
“But if Geithner’s goal was really to get toxic assets off the banks’ balance sheets, the program has failed completely – or merits an incomplete at best. Against that backdrop, it will be interesting to see what Geithner says about PPIP this week, if anything.”
Source: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker, July 1, 2009.
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Paul Krugman
Source: Charlie Rose, June 30, 2009.
CNBC: Bond king reacts to jobs data
“William Gross, co-CIO of Pimco, shares his reaction to Thursday’s jobs report.”
Source: CNBC, July 2, 2009.
CNBC: “Black Swan” on the economy
“Nassim Taleb, principal of Universa Investments and author of ‘The Black Swan’, shares his outlook on the economy.”
Source: CNBC, July 2, 2009.
The Wall Street Journal: Role of housing in economic recovery
“The economy will not recover until housing prices stabilize. Housing affects not just American families but banks, credit markets and construction business and jobs. Economics editor David Wessel explains.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2009.
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Jeff Immelt, chairman and CEO of GE
Source: Charlie Rose, June 25, 2009.
CNBC: Roach – Asia won’t be the new engine of growth
“Hopes that Asia is going to be the new engine of the global economy are overblown at this point, cautions Stephen Roach, chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia. He tells CNBC’s Martin Soong, Karen Tso & Sri Jegarajah why.”
Source: CNBC, June 30, 2009.
The Wall Street Journal: China can’t save the world
“Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus will boost domestic growth this year, but it won’t do much for the rest of the world. Chinese demand for foreign manufactured goods has been sliding. Instead, they’ve been buying commodities.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2009.
The Wall Street Journal: “Evil” Madoff gets 150 years in epic fraud
“Following Bernie Madoff’s sentence of 150 years in prison, Kelsey Hubbard gets reactions from victims of the fraud and talks with WSJ’s Peter Lattman about what went on inside the courtroom.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2009.
The Wall Street Journal: Yearning for earnings? Hang in there
“Amid mixed economic data, the Street still expects an end to sliding corporate profits late in 2009, reports Barrons.com’s Johanna Bennett.”
Source: David Ranson, The Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2008.
CNBC: Deja yu Dow 10,000?
“Whether the alleged bear market rally will get us to Dow 10,000 ten years later, with Robert Prechter, Elliot Wave International president.”
Source: CNBC, June 30, 2009.
Bloomberg: Faber doesn’t see new stock market lows
“Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton about the outlook for the US equity market. Faber, speaking from Seoul, also discusses his investment strategy, prospects for economic recovery and concerns about inflation.”
Source: Bloomberg, June 29, 2009.
CNBC: Roach – commodity prices won’t see deflation
“The deflation call for commodity prices is largely behind us, says Stephen Roach, chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia. He tells CNBC’s Karen Tso & Martin Soong that he does not see a pronounced downtrend in commodity prices like what was seen last fall.”
Source: CNBC, June 30, 2009.
The Wall Street Journal: Charts show USD could resume its downtrend
“The US Dollar Index may rise a little further towards the 81.50 to 82.00 resistance area, where it is expected to be capped by the March to June resistance line, before slipping back towards the 78.33 June low.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2009.
John Authers (Financial Times): Chinese currency policy?
“John Authers says that while China sits on huge piles of dollars, it cannot push the dollar down.”
Click here for the article.
Source: John Authers, Financial Times, June 29, 2009.
You Tube: Yield curve mambo
“Three month to 30 year US swap spreads data from Bloomberg pulled into excel, mashed up a bit and set to music.”
Source: You Tube, June 27, 2009.
