Households and home prices

As the sustainability and depth of an US economic recovery will come down to the financial health of households and home prices, today we get data on Existing Home Sales and Jobless Claims. Jobless Claims may have one more week of seasonal distortions due to auto plant shutdowns that didn’t occur in July because they were restarted after months of closings at Chrysler and GM. Initial Claims are expected to rise 35k to 557k while Continuing Claims are expected to jump by 117k but after last week’s huge drop also influenced by seasonals. Also beginning to have an influence are those who are passing the 26 week expiration of benefits and are no longer included in the calculation even though many get extensions for up to 79 weeks. June Existing Home Sales are expected to total 4.84mm, up 70k from May and would be the most since Oct ’08 even as mortgage rates moved higher in June. Months supply will also be key.

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