Unlike the world of consumer products where lower prices bring out the buyers (free money from CF clunker’s as an example), investors get more bullish the more expensive stocks get. The weekly II data said the number of bullish newsletter writers rose to 47.2, up 5 points for the week while bears fell to 25.8 from 31.1. Outside of one week in June, the spread is the highest since early ’08. The 2nd half economic recovery is coming but likely due to a still tough labor market, ABC’s confidence number fell 2 points to -49 and still remains near record lows. ABC said “92% say the economy is in bad shape.” The ADP July jobs number is expected to fall 350k, the slowest pace of declines since Oct ’08. Seasonal changes due to auto plant shutdowns that didn’t occur will be an influence. The MBA said refi’s rose 7.2% and purchases were up .9%. “Failure to manage the degree of easing may lead to concerns about mid to long term inflation and exchange rate stability,” said the PBOChina, likely pointing its finger at US Government policy.
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