Import Prices

August Import Prices rose 2% m/o/m, higher than estimates of a gain of 1%. The y/o/y drop was 15% mostly due to the fall in energy prices since last summer. Ex all fuels, m/o/m prices rose .4% and are down 5.1% y/o/y. The month of August saw little change in the $ but that of course changed in September so if the trend continues, import price changes will be more of a focus as we potentially start importing inflation since the weak $ results in goods costing more to bring things into the US. Import Prices from China rose .2% m/o/m, the biggest gain since Aug ’08. People can argue that we currently face more of a risk of deflation than inflation since the overall consumer price data is still disinflationary but the key factor in price stability is a stable currency and we have one that is near record lows vs a basket of other currencies.

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