Yesterday I quantified the S&P 500 results going back to Sept ’98 in gold terms and its 70% decline. Let’s look at the S&P’s over the same time frame for overseas investors who have currency exposure. In US$’s, the S&P 500 over the past 11 years is up 3% in total (not including dividends) but in the commodity currencies such as the Australian $ it is down 31% and in the Canadian $ its down 28%. In Yen terms, the S&P 500 is down 40%. Since the Euro began in Jan ’99, the S&P is down 34% in Euro terms. I raise this because in a world where the US$ is the global reserve currency, foreign investors must protect themselves if they want continued US exposure and the $ trends continue. It also gives reason for the reflation trade which is a global phenomenon in light of the long term downward action in the US$. Under current fiscal and monetary policy, nominal stock returns can continue but REAL returns will be tougher to come by.
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