September Payrolls

Sept Payrolls fell by 263k, exceeding expectations by 88k and the two prior mo’s were revised a net 13k down. The Unemployment rate rose .1% to 9.8% as expected as the household survey fell by a sharp 785k but the labor market shrunk by 571k. The U6 figure which is the most comprehensive measure of employment rose .2% to 17%. The average time of unemployment rose to 26.2 weeks from 24.9. Average weekly hours fell .1%, matching the lowest level since at least 1964 at 33 hrs. Average hourly earnings rose .1%, .1% less than expected but the prior month was revised up by .1%. Education/health was the only group that saw job gains. Temp losses only fell by 2k which is one small light in the data as it’s a precursor to permanent jobs. The government, at all levels (even federal), shed jobs. The Birth/Death model magically added 34k vs 16k in Sept ’08. Payrolls follow data over the past week that is a reality check in terms of the sluggishness of the economy and the bumpy road to recovery it will be.

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