Mixed data and Fed money printers lower rate hike odds this week

Mixed economic data this week and FOMC minutes from the Dec meeting that reveals the desire of some members to keep the money printing presses hummin’ past Q1 has lowered the odds of fed rate hikes this year in the fed funds futures market. Year end ’09 the odds of a 25 bps hike by the June meeting was 78% but is down to 18% today. On Dec 31st, the Oct contract (captures the Sept meeting) was pricing in a 100% chance of 50 bps in hikes and a 26% chance of 75 bps. Today, there are 100% odds of just a 25 bps hike by the Sept meeting and only 28% odds of 50 bps.

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