S&P/CS home price index

The Nov S&P/CS 20 city home price index fell 5.3% y/o/y which was a touch more than expected but is the smallest rate of decline since Sept ’07. The index is now up 5% from its low in April but still remains 29% below the peak in July ’06. Four cities saw y/o/y gains and those were Dallas, San Francisco, Denver and San Diego. Las Vegas remained the mess with a y/o/y drop of 24.5%. Bottom line, as I mentioned yesterday, it won’t be until late spring, early summer that we will know the true equilibrium between supply and demand and thus pricing as the Fed ends (maybe) their MBS purchase program and the home buying tax credit expires, again. Thus, it is too premature to call the bottom in pricing and in fact with another wave of foreclosures and mortgage rate resets ahead, the odds are for another leg down, albeit more modestly than what has been seen so far, hopefully.

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