ADP rules!

While many are waiting for Friday’s Payroll figure to tell them the state of the US labor market, I’m going to rely on today’s ADP report as a better gauge. That is because it is private sector based and thus won’t be distorted by the likely 100k+ adds of government census workers and the “methodology used to construct it” takes out most of the impact of the Feb snow storms and March snapback. Thus, a cleaner number will result and expectations are +40k, the first positive reading since Jan ’08. Germany’s March job # was better than expected as the level of unemployed fell by 31k vs a forecasted rise of 7k. Also, March Euro Zone CPI rose a hotter than expected 1.5%, .4% of pt above estimates and the fastest gain since Dec ’08. The euro is higher in response. ABC confidence fell 1 pt to -45 but is 2 pts above the 1 yr avg. The MBA said purchase applications rose to the highest since Oct 30th as we near the end of the home buying tax credit.

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