in our new world, what multiple should be paid?

Without getting into a discussion on healthcare and its politics, one reality of our soon to be new system is the inevitable further rise in government spending that is headed to 25% of US GDP from its long term average of about 20%. In order to finance this, there will be a smaller private sector and as a result, there will be slower economic growth as nothing is for free. Should the average P/E ratio over the past 100 years of 15x still apply going forward or should there be a revaluation of the multiple paid for US corporate earnings? The one hope that can sustain average multiples over time is the growing mix of exports to earnings as long as the US can make things at a competitive price that the rest of the world wants. I digress, India’s Sensex fell 1% in response to Friday’s rate hike and the rest of Asia followed ex the Shanghai index. With Germany still unclear on what direction they will take with Greece, Greek bonds are down sharply.

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