The minutes from the last FOMC meet was not that revealing but a few things stick out. They revised down slightly its estimate for core PCE inflation for ’10 and ’11. With respect to headline inflation, they don’t seem concerned as they think the rise in energy prices to increase more slowly going forward based on modest contango in the curve. Relying on that for one’s inflation outlook has no value but who am I to argue. They still rely on the output gap and low unit labor costs and much less on the rise in commodity prices. A few did note though that “the risks to inflation expectations and the medium term inflation outlook might be tilted to the upside in light of the large fiscal deficits and the extraordinarily accommodative stance of monetary policy.” They also trimmed their GDP estimates. Net-net, the bond market has started the tightening cycle, thus their opinion on policy here is somewhat old news but they are surely dovish.
