April Payrolls solid but old news?

Payrolls were strong, rising 290k, 100k above estimates and the private sector saw a gain of 231k, 131k higher than expected. The 2 prior months were revised up by a 121k. But, the unemployment rate rose .2 to 9.9% as the labor force rose by 805k and offset the household survey gain of 550k. The all in rate rose to 17.1% from 16.9%. Avg hourly hours worked rose to 34.1 from 34, the highest since Feb ’09 but avg hourly earnings were flat and are up just 1.6% y/o/y, thus below the rate of inflation. The other caveat was that the avg duration of unemployment rose to 33 weeks from 31.2, a fresh record high. Construction added jobs for a 2nd straight month and the financial sector saw a modest job gain. The B/D model added 188k jobs vs 126k in Apr ’09. Bottom line, the job growth was solid and we hope it continues but there is a belief that this is old news in that the world has changed over the past few weeks and global growth is now threatened.

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