UoM about in line but inflation expectations jump

The May preliminary UoM confidence # at 73.3 was a touch below expectations of 73.5 but is up from 72.2 in April. The high in the rebound over the past year was 73.6 back in Feb and March. Current Conditions were about flat with April at 81.1 while Expectations rose almost 2 pts to 68.3. Interestingly, one year inflation expectations rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, the highest since June ’09 as my guess is higher gasoline prices in particular are having an impact on psychology. While down on average as of last night to a two week low, many are paying $3 per gallon or close to it (avg is $2.88) up from an average of $2.65 at the beginning of the yr and as we approach the summer driving season. Five yr inflation expectations rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, the highest since Jan. Bottom line, today’s survey is a phone in conducted just days ago so its a timely capture of consumer sentiment.

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