Chicago PMI, we’ll take in line

The June Chicago PMI was in line with expectations at 59.1. While down from 59.7 in May and the recent high of 63.8 in April, it’s still at a good level as the 10 yr average is 52.8. The components though bear watching as New Orders fell by 3.6 pts to the lowest since Sept ’09 and Backlogs fell by 2 pts to the lowest since Nov ’09. Also, Inventories fell 10 pts to 46.5, the lowest since Feb ’10 and the above 3 components point to the inventory build story running its course in the short term. A pick up in end demand is needed to get it going again. As seen in the ADP report and hiring in the manufacturing sector, the Employment component rose 5 pts and back above 50 at 54.2. Prices Paid, coincident with the drop in commodity prices, fell by 2 pts to the lowest since Dec ’09. Net-net, following the soft US economic data over the past month we’ll take an in line # at a good level as manufacturing remains the bright spot in the spotty economic recovery.

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