PIIS country (ex G) yields lower thx to Portugal

Successful bond auctions in Portugal at around 5:50am, both a 3 yr and 10 yr, sent European stock markets higher on the day after being down across the board earlier. Italian and Spanish yields fell immediately following the auction results and CDS across the PIIGS are narrower. Importantly, Portugal sold 10 yr paper at a bid to cover of 1.8, in line with the previous one in May but at a cost of 5.23%, well above 4.52% in the last one but in line with the past few days. A Chinese gov’t official apparently leaked Thursday’s important economic data and it helped to lift the Shanghai index by almost 3%. According to reuters, the official said May bank loans rose by 630b yuan vs expectations of 600b and May exports rose around 50%, well above the consensus of 32%. Also, May CPI supposedly rose by 3.1%, .1% above the forecast.

ABC confidence continues to show the US consumer is keeping a stiff upper lip in light of all the macro concerns that have plagued the market over the past month. It rose 1 pt to -43, a 9 week high and is now 4 pts above the one year average. Mortgage apps continue to reflect the nasty, post home buying tax credit blues as the purchase component fell by 5.7% and is now down 43% in the past 5 weeks to the lowest since Feb ’97. After 4 weeks of solid gains, refi’s fell by 14.3%. Bernanke speaks at 10am on the economy and we’re likely to hear little different from Monday nights speech. In sharp contrast to what we’ll hear from Ben, Hoenig last night reiterated his desire to hike rates to 1% over the next few months and said “monetary policy can cause asset bubbles, and frankly, I’m worried about it.” Pathetically, Bernanke still distances his (and Greenspan) policy over the past 10+ yrs from any culpability.

II: Bulls 38.5 v 39.8 Bears 31.9 v 28.4, bears highest since July ’09

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