I continue to sit in the camp that says the US economy is slowing, but not rolling over. I won’t rule out a recession in 2012, but I don’t see one over the next 2-4 quarters.
Here is yet another piece of that puzzle. While everyone continues to over-emphasize recent housing and employment data, ECRI points out their U.S. Long Leading Index [USLLI] is far less ominous:
ECRI concluded: “In essence, the recent slight dip in the USLLI is not as pronounced, pervasive and persistent as it was before the double dip in the early 1980s.”