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Tonite I will be on Fast Money on CNBC at 5:30pm discussing the Housing market, as you may have noticed the past two days here, here and here lately.
The key housing takeaways:
• Housing over the past century managed to just outpace inflation by 1.1%;
• The bond bull market that starting in 1980 drove mortgage rates down from the peak by as much as two/thirds — as high as 15% down to ~5%.
• Post WWII growth of suburbs and the subsequent baby-boom demographic surge created a massive demand for Housing (unlikely to be repeated soon)
• Decreasing credit costs also drove Real Estate appreciation (1980-2005);
• Bull Markets end with blowoff tops, pulling forward a decade or more of future returns;
• Home prices remain 5-15% overvalued nationally; Resolved via a big drop tomorrow, or 7-15 year period of no appreciation (depending upon inflation and wage gains);
• Housing has problems with both too much supply and not enough demand. .
Should be fun!
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