July private sector job gains totaled 71k, 19k below expectations and the 2 prior months were revised down by 97k. The headline drop of 131k was led by the decline in census workers. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5% vs the estimates of 9.6% as the household survey drop of 159k about matched the 181k fall in the labor force. The all in rate (U6), was also unchanged at 16.5%. The average duration of unemployment ticked down to 34.2 from 35.2, a positive as was the increase in weekly hours worked to 34.2 from 34.1. Also positive, average hourly earnings rose .2% m/o/m, .1% above estimates. Manufacturing added 36k jobs, 23k above estimates. Construction and the financial sector again shed jobs. Temp employment fell by 6k, the 1st decline since Sept ’09. The B/D model added 6k vs -10k in ’09. Net-net, private sector job gains are averaging 90k per month this year, obvious hiring but still lackluster relative to what is needed to forcefully lower the unemployment rate.
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