Philly Fed lackluster but outlook improves

Following a much better than expected NY manufacturing survey (+15.7), the Oct Philly Fed figure was punk at +1, 1 pt below expectations but up from -.7 in Sept and -7.7 in Aug. New Orders rose 3 pts but was negative for a 3rd straight month at -5.0. Backlogs fell slightly to -8.9, the lowest since Aug ’09 and Inventories fell by 2 pts to the lowest since Oct ’09. The Employment index rose modestly to 2.4 from 1.8 and the average workweek rose to -6 from -21.6. Following the rise in commodity prices, Prices Paid jumped sharply to 31.5 from 9.8 and is at a 5 month high. Prices Received remained negative for a 5th straight month but rose by 4.9 pts. While the internal components were mostly lackluster and “indicators for growth, although improving from last month, remained at levels that suggest slight growth, at best”, the 6 month outlook rose almost 15 pts to 41, the most since April.

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