Private sector job gains about in line

Sept private sector Payrolls totaled 64k, 11k below expectations BUT Aug was revised up by 26k and July up by 10k. Thus taken all together, the data is about in line with forecasts. The headline figure of -95k was led by a 159k decline in government workers, 77k of which were census workers and 76k that were local government employees. The Unemployment rate held steady at 9.6% as the Household survey rose by 141k, not far from the 48k person rise in the labor force but the all in rate rose to 17.1% from 16.7%. Avg hourly earnings were flat, below the estimate of a .2% gain. The avg workweek was also flat, in line. A bright spot was the avg duration of unemployment fell for a 3rd month. Bottom line, there is nothing in today’s data that changes the equation of what the FOMC will do on Nov 3rd and unfortunately the markets are more beholden to that rather than today’s data itself which again was BLAH.

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