The 2nd and final look at Nov U of M confidence was 2 pts better than thought at 71.6 and up from the initial reading of 69.3 out a few weeks ago. It’s the best level since June and up from 67.7 in Oct. Both Current Conditions and the Outlook rose a bit more than 2 pts. One year inflation expectations were 3%, up from 2.7% in Oct but holding steady with the preliminary Nov report. That is the highest since May. There is no better driver to consumer confidence than comfort in one’s job and maybe the fall in initial claims is a clear sign that the labor market is getting better and the consumer is beginning to feel that. With this said, we’ll get labor market net hiring data next week with the ADP report and Payrolls and they will help to quantify to what extent.
