After the very encouraging drop last week in initial claims, they rose by 26k to 436k this week, 12k higher than expected. The 4 week average though did fall to 431k from 437k, the lowest since Aug ’08. Continuing Claims were 70k above forecasts. Extended benefits rose a net 235k after a drop in 262k in the prior week. Bottom line, the trend in initial claims is still a big improvement from what’s been seen and we’ll see tomorrow to what extent the economy has hired new people. The big question for the short term though for unemployment benefits is what Congress does with the just expired extension of up to 99 weeks of benefits. About 2mm people are expected to drop off the roles without an extension but hopefully the 2.9mm job openings out there can pick up many of these.
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