Tonight I’m gonna party like its Oct 2007

Coincident with a 6% rally thus far in Dec and joining almost every single strategist on Wall St that is bullish for 2011, Investors Intelligence said the number of bullish newsletter writers has reached its highest level since mid Oct ’07, 1 week after the S&P 500 had its all time record high close of 1565. Bulls rose 2 pts to 58.8 (got as high as 62 in Oct ’07) while Bears were little changed at 20.6 (got as low as 19.6 in Oct ’07). The bulls can be right for a period of time so this is not an indicator to go out and sell everything but it does highlight that the likely risk reward in the short term is getting more iffy. Also, ABC confidence rose 2 pts to -41, the best in 6 months. Rounding up, the average gallon of gasoline touched $3.00 ($2.997 to be exact) last night for the 1st time since Oct ’08. The MBA said refi’s fell 24.6% to a 7 month low and purchases fell 2.5%. Seasonally these figures do fall in late Dec but the recent rise in rates is definitely having an impact on refi’s. Following my higher interest rate theme in ’11, Brazil’s central bank raised its ’11 inflation forecast and said rates will rise.

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