If revisions incl., payrolls in line (ADP an outlier)

Payrolls rose by 103k, 47k below estimates. The private sector saw gains of 113k vs the estimate of 178k. Net revisions were higher by 70k, 62k of which was in the private sector. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4% from 9.8% and well below the forecast of 9.7% and that’s because the household survey added 297k jobs and the labor force fell by 260k. The all in rate fell to 16.7% from 17%. If the amount of job hiring’s continue, the labor force will start to rise again so don’t expect this pace of unemployment rate declines continuing. Avg hourly earnings rose 1.8% y/o/y, in line and avg weekly hours worked was in line at 34.3. Negatively, the avg duration of unemployment rose to 34.2 weeks, which is a new high. Bottom line, ADP not surprisingly was an anomaly likely due to seasonal adjustment problems on their part but with today’s upward revisions, the Government figure was about in line with forecasts but certainly well off the ADP distorted whisper.

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