Assuming no major change today, the DJIA is on track for a 9th straight week of gains and that would be the 1st time since 1995 when it rose 10 weeks in a row. The markets began an extraordinary 5 yr run beginning in 1995 after the Fed ended a sharp rate hike cycle in ’94 thru early ’95 and the 10 yr bond yield fell 250 bps in ’95 so the interest rate backdrop are of course not apples to apples so don’t extrapolate. Following the S&P downgrade of Japan, JGB’s yields actually fell and the yen is gaining back what it lost yesterday. The Nikkei though fell by 1.1%. Japan has no easy way out but for now JGB’s continue to have blind faith in the generosity of the Japanese who own 94% of the market. Little news in Europe but the FTSE looks like its topping out after the poor GDP report earlier in the week and today Jan consumer confidence fell to the lowest since Mar ’09.
We haven’t seen this in almost 16 yrs
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