Birinyi, Biggs, Fisher: Buy Year 3 of Rally

I do not recall who else was calling a bottom in March 2009 — there seems to be many more folks making the claim than occurred in real time– but Birinyi was certainly one of them.

[UPDATE: Several of you point to this March 29 2011 Bloomberg story quoting Birinyi saying sell:

Investors who own stocks that rose as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 20 percent since March 9 should consider selling them, said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates Inc. in Westport, Connecticut.

“You’ve had a lot of stocks make very condensed, very sharp, compressed moves,” Birinyi said on Bloomberg Television. “Investors should realize that with the market driven by day- to-day news, there’s nothing wrong with booking some profits.” The market is reminiscent of 2007, when the S&P 500 rose 3.5 percent but investors who bought the right stocks turned substantial profits, Birinyi said. The S&P 500 Energy Index gained 32 percent that year.

(Note the reporters on the current story responded to my email, stating “We checked the tape of that interview with Bloomberg News on March 26, and Birinyi maintains his overall bullish outlook, just suggesting temporary profit-taking. The S&P 500 fell about 5.4 percent in the two days following the interview.”)

Here is the 2011 Bloomberg, (which now appears to be either erroneous or incomplete):

“The money managers who picked the global stock market bottom say now is no time to sell as the biggest equity rally since 1955 starts its third year.

Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, says gains that added about $28 trillion to global share values will outlast previous increases as investors who missed the first phase play catch-up. Valuations are still below historical averages, said Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who purchased stocks before the S&P 500’s 95 percent advance.

Rallies in equities, corporate debt and commodities illustrate how the more than $12 trillion pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks is spurring a recovery from the worst global recession since the 1930s. While bears say prices will fall once stimulus ends, billionaire Kenneth Fisher and Byron Wien of Blackstone Group LP are betting on stocks whose profits are most tied to economic growth.”

I am less Bullish than this crew, but I do think the rally could end with a melt up.  More on that in part 3 of our End of QE series later today . . .


Birinyi Buys as Biggest Bull Rally Since ’55 Hits Third Year
Michael Patterson, Whitney Kisling and Rita Nazareth
Bloomberg, March 9 2011

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