Instead of ‘shock and awe’, it seems what we’re seeing in Libya is more ‘hit and run.’ I say this because without ground troops going in to physically remove Gaddafi, it’s not clear how this ends and while stock markets globally are higher this morning (mostly due to Japan nuclear news), we’ve also gotten higher oil prices in addition to a reprieve for the rebels. Markets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Israel are all higher. Also of huge importance of course is the sense that the nuclear reactors in Japan are getting under control and it has the yen lower for a 2nd day after the intervention and Nikkei futures are at a 1 week high (Japanese stocks closed for holiday). After India and China didn’t let the news in Japan alter their fight against commodity inflation, ECB’s Mersch said “strong vigilance is needed to contain upside risks to price stability,” code words for higher rates.
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