A reader writes: "You have mentioned blog traffic spiking near bottoms. How’d that work out this week?"
Answer: Pretty good…
Below is the past 30 days traffic, with Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday circled in blue; Average volume is blue line.
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Previously:
Traffic Spike? (January 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/traffic-spike.html
Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/blog-traffic-as.html
Traffic Indicates (June 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/traffic-indicat.html
The prevailing question is – is this THE bottom or A bottom? This market might have room to run a bit, but I still think it’s the latter.
If you get much more exposure, you might end up like the restaurant Yogi Berra talked about. It got so popular that nobody went there anymore. I mean, would you rather be admired by all the cool, discerning people or an A list celebrity and awesomely rich? Um…
Dude, this indicator is for real!!!
Why would this be THE bottom??? when THE top happened not even a year ago???
Or does it spike near Fed intervention?
The question is not whether this is the bottom for the general market, but is this the bottom for specific sectors?
Biotech, financial, coal, Natural gas?
Sure it is nice to catch a sea change, but fisherman work with the tide.
I like that casual use of the term “short term bottom”.
Barry:
Would you please create a graph of the YTD? I’d like to see the beginning of the Spring Rally after the BS bailout.
Those numbers are sick, BR. You give me page-view envy. I am but a tiny pilot fish to your great white shark.
Its too bad Barry that the best blog entry you’ve ever written was on the day or very close to this most recent bottom. Save it, we’ll need it again fairly soon. Everything you said is still true.
Barry,
I am from the land of down-under and normally enjoy your blog from the land of the free and Federally supported.
I am struggling to find the link / co-relation that is suggested here. When loads more people visit your site, this results in a bounce?
Funny, but not that scientific.
Maybe if Yahoo put your blog on their finance page, we could make 14000 by Christmas?
I think what Barry is suggesting is that as his blog is the most bearish of the mainstream blogs. Hence when bearish sentiment peaks, a rally is due from a contrarian perspective.
I think the new Barry Blog bounce phenomena may be due to the fact that this particular crew is very active around market turning points. I know I spent more time at the keyboard and less at the golf course this week. It made me some dough and helped my tendonitis. Is this a great site or what?
Add it to the bag of sentiment tricks. AAII, P/C ratio, Arms, A/D, Hi/Low and now the TBP page views.
If it gives an edge, why not?
My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.
Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?
Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.
My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.
Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?
Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.
I know some sentiment surveys are calling for a rally and you got a big one for certain sectors. Chartwise, I just pored over a dozen of the beaten down financials…have to say that even after the massive bounce, most of them are just getting to their 21 or 50 day MAs, which they have done several times before. One chart that befuddles me is JPM…that’s a really strange looking one…smells of manipulation. It seems to be a wave with the envelope expanding in a feedback loop that will result in an uncontrollable event.
Aside from surveys, indicators which show actual bets being made are actually too bullish. Put/Calls are very complacent…Committment of Traders shows small speculators (dumb money) long S&P and Dow and flat on Nas. I will hold QID, which despite a 500 point 3 day Dow rally, was relatively unscathed.
It’s just a Relative measure, Shows; massive market participation, confusion, people looking for answers.
Another good metric, is when the comments move into the 90 range
Don’t eat the Soap!
My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.
Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?
Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.
My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.
Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?
Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.
Barry,
Can you keep the daily update posted on your website or do you think that would defeat it’s reliability? A good physics major would experiment.
Phil
This was either the left butt cheek or the right butt check but probably not both.