10:20 am A CONVERSATION WITH RAY DALIORay Dalio runs the world’s richest hedge fund, trading in more than a hundred different financial instruments around the world. In 2007, Dalio predicted the housing bust and the impending insolvency of the world’s largest banks.We’ll sit down with the prescient macro investor and discuss the global economic trends that he’s anticipating and how he’s preparing for them.
Raymond T. Dalio, President, Co-CEO, and Co-CIO, Bridgewater Associates
Erik Schatzker, Editor-at-Large and Co-Host, InsideTrack, Bloomberg Television
INTERESTING CONVERSATION –WHICH IT WAS LONGER~~~
11:15 am A CONVERSATION WITH GARY GENSLERThe push to implement financial regulatory reform following the 2008 financial crisis appears to be losing momentum, giving way to the vicissitudes of a weak global economy, persistent sovereign debt crisis in Europe and skittish markets around the world. But for the people tasked with writing and implementing the Dodd-Frank rules, the important and laborious effort continues.We’ll sit down with the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, charged with policing the $300 trillion U.S. derivatives market for a frank discussion on when he expects regulations to come into effect. Wall Street has much to lose and is putting its muscle behind weakening existing legislation. What will the final rules look like? How much will Dodd-Frank change Wall St.? Can investment banks still make money?
Gary Gensler, Chairman, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
William D. Cohan, Columnist, Bloomberg View
Author, House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street & Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World
CAN CHINA HURT YOU?
Global investment spending is on the rebound, and in 2011 for the first time more of that spending will occur in emerging economies than in the developed world. Whether you are Siemens or Citigroup, you ignore the Chinese market at your peril. And yet, there are also huge obstacles for foreign investors in getting their China strategy right.
We’ll examine some of these pitfalls. Are Chinese stocks too expensive, and is real estate in a bubble? Should corporate leaders and investors worry that they are jumping in at a moment when the economy is about to overheat and inflation is likely to force the country’s leaders to tamp down growth? Investors trying to get into the Chinese market may be wary of the difficulty they face in a country with poor intellectual property protections and an explicit policy of keeping key industries under domestic control by fostering national champions.
Carson Block, Founder and Director of Research, Muddy Waters
James G. Rickards, Senior Managing Director, Tangent Capital Partners
Stephen S. Roach, Non-Executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia
Betty Liu, Anchor, In the Loop with Betty Liu, Bloomberg Television~~~05:00 pm
THE NEXT BLACK SWANS
The violent re-shaping of the Middle East. Japan’s earthquake and tsunami that led to a nuclear disaster. The rise of the Tea Party. The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. And through it all, massive market swings. Which of these are considered “black swans,” described by Nassim Taleb as an outlier that creates an extreme impact?
From the unexpected, we’ll also examine the everyday decisions people make that have brought us to where we are. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman pioneered the field of behavioral economics and has studied the many ways people make irrational decisions about risks.
While markets are on the lookout for the next black swans, should they be watching for patterns of irrational behavior instead? Why do investors make the same mistakes? Are we better prepared for extreme outliers? How can markets identify areas of vulnerability to turn black swan events into white? How can markets better distinguish the particular from the general?
Tom Keene, Editor-at-Large, Bloomberg News; Co-Host, Bloomberg Surveillance, Bloomberg Radio; Anchor, Surveillance Midday, Bloomberg Television
Laszlo Birinyi, President, Birinyi Associates, Inc.
Daniel Kahneman, Senior Scholar; Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Emeritus; and Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Emeritus, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Co-Director of The Research Center For Risk Engineering , Polytechnic Institute of New York University
Heading out to the Bloomberg Conference; these are the events I plan on attending:
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