Is the Worst of the Bear Market Behind Us?

Is the worst of the market sell off over?

If we look at long term charts of prior collapses, it appears there is lots of upside to go.

I am less convinced that there is nothing but smooth sailing ahead. For markets to continue to rally, we likely need to avoid a major collapse in Europe, sidestep a recession in the US, and see some job creation and wage improvement here that can translate into improvement in retail, auto and home sales.

As of today, I remain dubious of that as an immediate outcome.

Still, the breakout last week above the 3 month trading range at ~1220-25 last week suggests some more upside from here, assuming the new trading range sticks. The playbook calls for a pullback and test of the breakout — traditionally, making for a great entry point — and if that test successful, the next leg up should then begin.

Hence, your posture is dramatically impacted by your time frame. If you are looking out 1-3 months, you are probably bullish. If your outlook is measured in 6-12 months, you might be less sanguine.  And the time between is anyone’s guess . . .

Here is what Doug Short called the “4 Bad Bears”:


Click to enlarge chart:

Source: Advisor Perspectives

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