SPX Breakout

October 21, 2011 12:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

click for larger charts

Markets are in the process of breaking out. As the charts above show, the S&P500 is now out of its August/September/October trading range. The Dow has broken out; the Nasdaq 100 broke out of a less defined range on 10/14. The small cap Russell2000 is still mired in that range.

As the 2nd chart shows, the SPX has moved above its 50 moving average, and has penetrated the 100 day. The 200 day seems to be acting as a magnet, pulling equities towards it. A better way to describe that phenomena is that when the SPX was 20+% away from the 200 day, it sets up a bit of mean regression.

The caveat is we have seen bull and bear traps in the past. I prefer to use closing data. Any reversals here would be ugly, especially heading into the weekend.

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