Ever since the housing boom bursted in 2005, Homebuilder Confidence collapsed and Prospective Buyer Traffic has been at very low levels.
Yet another twitch upturn is being heralded as the real deal — as being driven by a real improvement in underlying fundamentals. These charts look to me a slow reversion towards normalcy – but we have a long way to go.
Homebuilder confidence and Traffic are tertiary indicators this Housing cycle — I am far more concerned with 1) Employment and Wage Gains, 2) Household formation; 3) Median Income to Median Home Price, and 4) Shadow Inventory.
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NAHB data via Investech