The folks at ISI are suggesting that the economic and policy data is beginning to become overwhelmingly positive. I am less sanguine then they are, and I disagree with a few of the bullet points (#1 especially).
However, it is a pretty long list of things that seem to be improving — or at least not getting worse:
• Housing starting to recover
• Labor market improving
• Credit expansion unfolding
• Low dollar
• Low rates
• Pent-up demand
• US mfg renaissance
• US energy sector booming
• Double-dip fears minimal so far this year
• Inflation receding around the world
• Europe financial strains have eased
• Liquidity is building in the world economy, eg, corporate cash
• There’ve been 83 stimulative policy initiatives announced around
the world over the past 5 months, eg, Indonesia cut rates
• The Fed has rates on hold at zero and is doing Operation Twist
• ECB is scheduled to further expand its balance sheet on Feb 29
by as much as + €1t
• There are no particular problems at the moment such as Japan
disasters, Thailand floods, supply-chain disruptions, gasoline
price spikes, and debt ceiling crises
What do you think? Is the data objectively getting better, or is this merely a selective list of positives?
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What say ye?
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