Confidence ticks up to best since Feb ’11

The final look at April UoM confidence at 76.4 was a bit better than expectations of 75.7 and the preliminary reading of 75.7 and is up from 76.2 in March. It’s the best since Feb ’11 but the components were mixed as while Current Conditions rose 2.3 pts, the Outlook fell by a slight .2 pt. Thanks to a continued decline in gasoline prices, one year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% from the preliminary print of 3.4% and down from 3.9% in March. It’s the lowest since Dec even though gasoline prices are .60+ higher than they were in Dec. Maybe the $1+ decline in natural gas prices since Dec is the offset. Bottom line, while the best in more than a year, confidence is a coincident indicator and thus tells us little about how consumers will react in terms of spending in the months to come.

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