Retail Sales in June unexpectedly fell across the board, .5% m/o/m headline, 4% ex auto’s, .2% ex auto’s and gasoline and .1% at the core (ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials). Individually, auto’s/parts sales fell .6%, furniture and electronics down by .8%, building materials lower by 1.6%, health/personal care by .7%, sporting goods by 1.6%, restaurant/bars by .2% and department stores weaker by .7%. Sales gains were seen in the secular strength of online retailing but also with clothing and food/beverages. Bottom line, headline retail sales are now down 3 months in a row, due maybe to some give back after the mild winter but also coincides with lackluster job growth. Of note too, the July NY mfr’g survey (the 1st July # out) rose to 7.4 from 2.3 and was above estimates of 4.0. New Orders though went negative for the 1st time since Nov ’11 and Backlogs fell 8 pts to -13.6. Employment was a positive as it rose 6 pts but after falling 8 in June. The Avg Workweek went to zero from +3.1. Prices Paid fell to the lowest since June ’09 but Prices Received was marginally higher. The overall 6 month outlook fell 3 pts to 20.2, the slowest since Oct ’11. Bottom line, while the headline figure rose, the components were very mixed. Philly mfr’g is out on Thurs.
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