New Home Sales Regress

New Home Sales in June totaled 350k annualized, down from 382k in May and 22k below expectations. It’s the lowest since Jan and was led by a sharp drop in the Northeast where sales went to 16k from 40k. Combined with a slight uptick in the amount of homes for sale, months supply rose to 4.9 from 4.5 but still remains below the 20 yr average of 5.7. The median price fell 3.2% y/o/y and 1.9% sequentially. Bottom line, with New Home Sales at current levels 75% below its peak and with a run rate near 50+ yr lows, new home construction has bottomed but there is still a long bridge between a bottom and a robust recovery as existing home inventories (shadow and otherwise) remain elevated (but of course well off its highs).

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