Inflation expectations are rising too

As we approach the FOMC meeting Wed which of course follows the plans from the ECB detailed last week, which has lifted asset prices (really since Draghi’s comments since late July), there has been a jump in inflation expectations too over the past week. Coincident with the 5 month high in the CRB index, the implied inflation rate in the 10 yr TIPS today is at 2.38%, up 12 bps over the past week and is at the highest level since late March. Expectations 5 yrs out are at the highest since mid April at 2.09%, up 9 bps since last Monday. Also, the 5 yr 5 yr forward breakeven rate at 2.81% is up 16 bps in a week to the most since Aug 2011. The rising inflation breakeven rates point still to very REAL negative interest rates which confirms the recent rise in gold out of a long time trading range.

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