Notwithstanding the 4% drop in the CRB index over the past 3 days led by crude, the impact of what the Fed announced last Thursday has been most pronounced on longer term inflation expectations. Today, the 5yr 5yr forward inflation breakeven index (measuring inflation expectations in 5 yrs for the following 5 yrs) is up 3 bps today to 3.03% and a close here would be the highest since August 2011. It’s up from 2.64% in late July right before Draghi made news and higher by 25 bps since the close last Wednesday. This index has only a 5 yr history but the high was 3.19% back in Apr ’11 when the Fed was 5 months into QE2. This is only one measure of market inflation expectations with TIPS being another but the no holds barred attitude of the Fed makes it worth watching now because if there one thing that throws the biggest wrench in the Fed’s grand experiment, its higher inflation. We have massive monetary inflation in the quantity of money currently with only a matter of when before it becomes consumer inflation.
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