Payrolls lame again but mkts only care about…

Aug Payrolls rose just 96k, well below expectations of 130k. The prior two months were also revised lower by 41k. The private sector added 103k vs expectations of 142k and well below the 201k that ADP said were created. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3% but for the wrong reasons, both due to the sharp 368k drop in the size of the labor force and the household survey which said 119k jobs were lost. The U6 rate fell to 14.7% from 15%. Discouragingly, avg hourly earnings were flat m/o/m and up just 1.7% y/o/y, barely keeping up with inflation. Also, the participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest since Sept 1981 and the avg duration of unemployment ticked up to 39.2 from 38.8 weeks. Looking at individual sectors, mfr’g unexpectedly lost 15k jobs vs the est of +10k. Construction rose by 1k. Temp jobs were down by 5k, retail added 6k and financial added 7k. Gov’t jobs in total at all levels fell by 7k. Bottom line, lame job growth continues, averaging just 139k per month year to date but all the markets are focused on is how central bankers will deal with the slowdown with more policy action. Ben’s B52 will drop more money next week.



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