Speaking in Singapore over the weekend, the German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that Greece will not go bankrupt. The comment is somewhat semantic as they already defaulted on private sector debt but the newly issued bonds are rallying to new highs as Schaeuble himself wants to get paid back. The issue maturing in 2023 is at .32 on the euro up from .18-.19 after the debt exchange. The lack of a possible ‘Greek event’ with the troika debating the next tranche has European markets trading better but Spain is still leaving everyone hanging and its bonds are lower.
The Shanghai index traded down and commodities are flat notwithstanding a 9.9% increase in Sept exports, almost twice what was expected even though imports were up 2.4% only in line with estimates. Exports specifically to Europe, China’s largest trading partner, fell 10.7%, down for a 4th month but were more than offset by strong exports to Asia. CPI was up 1.9% y/o/y but PPI fell 3.6% with both in line. China’s FX reserves rose to a 3 month high at $3.29T and M2 growth was 14.8% y/o/y, the most since June ’11. Due to an administrative increase in retail diesel prices to reduce their budget deficit, wholesale inflation in India rose to the highest since Nov ’11 at 7.8% y/o/y.
-Peter Boockvar
