Summary: The depth of the recent sell-off, coupled with the horrific and cowardly Boston Marathon bombing, seems to have shaken the confidence of the bulls a bit. The next few days will be important in regards to near term direction. We do not want to see yesterday’s lows violated as it will suggest, at least temporarily, buying power is exhausted. In our opinion, especially with the historically weaker month of May rapidly approaching, the market needs to rebound and recapture lost ground very soon otherwise, the long awaited correction may be at hand.
Anecdotal sentiment, which had the pendulum stuck on skeptical for most of this rally, seems to have taken a bit of a swing back to the complacency of late. We even note the title of our last market note, “Teflon Market” as first hand evidence on the subtle comfort the upward market action has given us all. Market breadth, which has improved, has started to deteriorate again, and now looks more like a bump form short covering than a continuation of the durable and strong breadth seen earlier in the advance.
Please see attached pdf for more details and charts.