With Spring nearly upon us, today may be the last chance for excuse-makers to blame this winter’s awful weather for poor job creation. Consensus estimates are that Payrolls increased 149,000 in February after a mediocre gain of 113,000 in January.
What is to blame for this weak ongoing job creation? Is it the Fed’s fault? Obamacare? An obstinate GOP controlled House?
I go with “none of the above.” The reality is far more nuanced and complex.
As I have been writing (and pleading and screaming) for the past 5 years, we are in a post credit crisis recovery. These are relatively rare. They look very different than the normal, post-recession jobs recovery. As Reinhart and Rogoff first observed in 2007 – the paper without the spreadsheet error – post credit crisis recoveries are typically slow, characterized by weak GDP gains and mediocre job creation. The Deleveraging process by corporations, households and government is the reason why. Continues here