Regular readers of mine know I spend lots of time debunking bias and cognitive errors. With the markets up as much as they have been, it has been easier to find examples of that error in the bearish camp than the bullish one (See this as an example of cognitive bias in action).
The bulls are just as likely to engage in selective perception and confirmation bias as their ursine counterparts. In the spirit of fair play and equal criticism, I should point out that the rallying market has provided them cover, allowing them to look more correct — and therefore less biased — than the bears. However, we much prefer to look at investing as a process rather than an activity based on outcomes. Let’s hope that helps us avoid getting fooled by dumb luck.
Which brings me to today’s charts. The first one has been getting touted by the bulls as a sign that all is well, the consumer is back, and there is lots more upside in equity markets. A closer look reveals that you can’t conclude any of that. Continues here