Good post-FOMC rally morning. Settle in for our daily train reads:
• Market Valuation Metrics: Where Do We Stand? (Alpha Architect) but see Everyone Hates U.S. Stocks (Bloomberg)
• FOMC Day’s Wild Ride (Irrelevant Investor)
• Meet the New Bond King: Joshua Barrickman is the opposite of Bill Gross. But his Vanguard index fund is poised to become the biggest bond fund (WSJ)
• Don’t call it a currency war. Call it textbook economics (Real Time Economics)
• China Stocks Rise to Highest Since 2008 Amid World’s Best Rally (Bloomberg) see also European Stocks Hit The Target (Dana Lyons)
I am not a big fan of many of the Democratic economic policies but the post Eisenhower Republican policies seem to be from fantasyland like in this opinion piece http://www.marketwatch.com/story/republicans-want-a-better-life-for-you-that-democrats-cant-stand-2015-03-19?dist=beforebell
Her various points:
1.Republicans want to lower budget deficits – will somebody please show me one example of how implemented Republican policies have lowered budget deficits in the past 35 years.
2. Lowering taxes – I agree with the Laffer curve at high tax rates. The US has not had particularly high tax rates for several decades. Lowering the tax rates generally does not seem to have had any significant lasting effect on economic growth as we have seen real median household income and wealth steadily decline since the beginning of the Reagan tax cuts. the push should be towards massive tax simplification – that is where the real tax costs are now.
3. School choice – many of the school choice programs result in cherry picked student populations. The remaining “detritus” doesn’t seem to have their educational opportunities allowed at all. The biggest single issues with schools are inequality between wealthy and poor districts and abysmal social structures at home in the poor districts. The unions can do a much better job, but so can school administrators and state/federal education departments. None of them can solve the problem of school populations that are predominantly raised in single parent (if they have a parent at home) families with poor employment prospects.
4. Pipelines – seriously – this is a huge issue? The pipeline company blew it big time by being arrogant with conservative Nebraska ranchers who ended up linked up with left-wing environmental activist groups to fight the pipeline. Normally these groups wouldn’t be found in a bar together. Once the permitting momentum was lost, it got turned into a Washington political football. The big driver for Keystone XL is the refineries that can no longer get the Venezuelan crude oil.
5. Obamacare – it appears that going back to the pre-Obamacare situation would be preferable to having very few uninsured.
6. Fewer regulations – we need fewer regulations that are simpler and better enforced. Neither party are offering this.
It’s so true.
The gerrymandering that keeps the GOP in power brings in left wing Democrats that the GOP will demogogue.
not really sure tax cuts it have had much if any growth incentive at all. didnt do much when Obama did it, didnt do much when Bush did it. and i guess they really like going back to the days when only a few can get health care, cause business is dropping it as quickly as they can do so (if they even offered it to begin with. course they got rid of pensions for all but execs, even if they were the most in trouble, and who knows if their replacement will ever work as advertized). and the pipeline deal, was just a joke, if it was for US use, why it it going to Houston, which has a large gas export business?
The Canadian oil sands oil is much like the Venezuelan crude oil form similar deposits. Several major refineries in the Houston area were structured to handle the Venezuelan crude that came in by ship. The Venezuelan oil production collapsed and those refineries want to replace it with the Canadian oil that needs to come in by pipeline.
That is the fundamental business case for the pipeline. Everything else is hot air generated by both sides. And while I believe in anthropogenic climate change ad global warming (not the same thing, but both appear to be occurring), it is going to require far, far more than stopping one pipeline to achieve anything in that battle. China’s slowing economy, Europe’s economic depression, and the US financial crisis have done more to address CO2 emissions than any policies governments have come up with. If we deregulate the financial institutions enough, they may be able to return our economies to the stone age which would solve the global warming problem, so the radical left is missing the big picture and should be fighting for deregulation..
Perma Bear notes that people do not respond to financial incentives.
“…Edwards notes that private savings have risen even though rates have stayed low and household net wealth grew to a record $83 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year…”
http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-its-too-late-to-raise-rates-2015-3
ROFL. Anything! They will say ANYTHING, these right wingers, even if it goes against their ego-driven ideology if it protects their ego-driven ideologic productions!
Thanks to the financial press for keeping King Dollar’s court jesters on the stage for everyone to laugh at.
After Netanyahu’s big win, the US might back a UN resolution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
“…Netanyahu’s campaign rhetoric — his statements in the days leading up to the election against a two-state solution and his election day comments on Arab voters — particularly angered the administration, prompting officials to say they would examine its future steps…”
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-might-back-un-to-end-israeli-palestinian-conflict-2015-3
America has coddled right-wing racists before. Instead of using the UN, America should work with Israel to change internally.
The chill in Israeli relations is Netanyahu’s fault. We need to isolate him, not invite him to lie in front of Congress.
The GOP fought Civil Rights fifty years ago in Selma. They will fight the peace today if they can gain short term political advantage… ANYTHING to keep feeding tax cuts to their rich benefactors.
Netanyahu and Likud won by taking poorer Jewish towns, West Bank settlements
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.647729
British deputy PM: If Netanyahu rejects two-state solution, U.K. will recognize Palestine
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.647834
Israel’s Netanyahu, Softening Pre-Election Statement, Reopens Door to Palestinian State
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-elections-palestinian-state.html
EXACTLY like the GOP, the low information voters. International Pariah. Principle-less lust for power.
Been a while since anyone in these here parts got fired up over what the banks did to all of us back in ’08, the very reason many of us find ourselves here on a daily basis. From Firedoglake: http://firedoglake.com/2015/03/19/petition-tell-doj-to-bring-charges-against-wall-street-before-statute-of-limitations-is-up/
Please read and consider signing the petition, however futile it might seem.
Good luck with that one. Would have loved to be a fly on the wall when Bernanke, Geithner and the rest of the bankster clan first met with Pres. Obama. It must have been an awkward conversation, but basically, if you mess with the banksters, they won’t buy your treasuries, and you will be a one term president. I think the Clintons taught Obama well.
stanford helping cover up sec director …malfeasance?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/stanford-law-school-covers-up-secs-andrew-bowdens-embarrassing-remarks-by-deleting-conference-video.html
see what happens when some messes with pensions?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidprosser/2015/03/18/the-great-britain-pensions-disaster/2/
seems that taxes go up. and people go hungary
the biggest example of laissez not so?
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/03/great-britain-and-laissez-not-so-faire-economics.html
GB was suppose to be the biggest example of government getting out of the way back in the 1600s-1800s. problem is, it really didnt do that. course that industrial revolution thing was expensive, and business doesnt like taking risks with large down sides
who knew?
http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/03/16/16905/consumers-getting-skinned-health-insurers
seems that skin in the game thing, was a pr/marketing game.
and it seems to have also convinced people to not get care, even if they have insurance. but they cant afford the out of pocket costs. which of leads to less care being done. which will of course bite business, as they dont have customers, and employees
re increasing bonds/re-issuing paper: Are we 100% sure that this is correct: there are significant amounts of stale paper at much higher rates? Is there a prohibition on early call? Normally you pay a premium for it but then early refinancing is permitted when rates drop. Since the Repubs like comparing economies to families you would think they can understand that refinancing makes sense when rates are significantly lower.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-19/woman-earning-400-in-pakistan-stocks-finds-respect-hard-to-gain
I lived and worked in a country (NOT Pakistan) whose market grew 1,000% while the US went nowhere. People need to diversify worldwide.
Today’s happy thoughts from Paul Tudor Jones
http://blog.ted.com/justice-capitalism-and-progress-paul-tudor-jones-ii-at-ted2015/