10 Wednesday AM Reads

October 28, 2015 7:50am by

My midweek, free range, gluten-free organic morning train reads:

• Mean Reversion, Small Sample Size and the Mets (Above the Market)
• Wonky, but good: This is the Small Cap Secret No One Ever Told You (Irrelevant Investor)
• The Sounds-Good-In-Theory-Portfolio (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• Washington’s blockbuster budget deal could be the end of an era (Business Insider)
• Why Donald Trump Could Win the Republican Nomination (Bloomberg) see also  U.S., Support for Tea Party Drops to New Low (Gallup)

Continues here

 

 

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. VennData commented on Oct 28

    If you’re too young to remember the financial crisis, then read Marc Andreessen’s tweetstorm

    “…There was a specific night in Sep 2008 that truly felt like Western civilization might end…”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/remembering-financial-crisis-tweets-2015-10

    And this goofball is still a GOP supporter after Bush’s Ownership Society let banks lever up and tax cuts didn’t lead to huge deficits, again.

    Wake up Andreesen. And sell a vowel.

  2. VennData commented on Oct 28

    China Summons US Ambassador to Protest Ship Near Reef

    http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/10/28/world/asia/ap-us-united-states-china.html

    China helpless as US protects the freedom shipping lanes for the rest of the world while Obama sits courtside.

    http://www.sbnation.com/2015/10/27/9623636/obama-attends-nba-opening-night-in-chicago

    ​Seeping into the nation’s history as a great president and a great guy.​

    What are all those Republicans who screech and scream going to tell their grandkids what THEY did while Obama changed America?

  3. VennData commented on Oct 28

    Icahn Urges AIG to Split Into Three, Says ‘Time to Act Is Now’

    ​Now? That’s a good time Carl? When did you not want a company to do something now?​

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/icahn-urges-aig-to-split-into-three-says-time-to-act-is-now-

    ​Bush Socializes AIG so Carl Can make a quick buck off it. One Republican elite washing the hands of another.

    Like what the Republican elite does with your tax dollars? Or should it go to building infrastructure?

  4. machinehead commented on Oct 28

    Excellent post by Michael Batnick on Mcquarrie’s ‘Myth of 1926’ paper — thank you. Mcquarrie points out that because most banks and insurance companies traded OTC until the 1970s, the widespread bank failures of the early 1930s leave no trace in the CRSP record, and probably bias it upward. That’s a serious omission.

    As in 2008, financials likely were the worst-performing sector during 1929-1933 as well. Hard to learn the lessons of the Depression when the scariest data is missing.

    • willid3 commented on Oct 28

      that was a feature, not a bug

      besides after the GD almost no one would invest in them. and banksters had to be on the straight narrow for a while, until the ‘investors’ (suckers) forgot the lessons

  7. VennData commented on Oct 28

    Dennis Hastert, Ex-Speaker of House, Pleads Guilty

    ​​http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/29/us/dennis-hastert-guilty-plea.html

    Paul ​Ryan to continue his legacy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/10/23/paul-ryan-the-hastert-rule-and-democracy-on-the-hill​

    Paul Ryan, a man of faith

    http://www.lifenews.com/2013/04/12/paul-ryan-energizes-pro-life-advocates-with-speech-against-abortion/

    Guess you can’t get PG in a a guy on guy wrestling match.

    Go GOP. Fool me thrice… shame on my FB news feed.

  8. VennData commented on Oct 28

    Boehner flagged for budget deal gimmick – POLITICO

    ​”..But when CBO turned around Tuesday and released a score that charged the deal more than $10 billion for the added OCO dollars, it upset the apple cart and showed the package did not fully pay for itself over the critical first decade. The red ink adds up to anywhere between $7 billion and $14 billion, depending on how much leeway is allowed. But it is nonetheless awkward for the White House and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), rushing to bring the bill to the House floor Wednesday.​..”​​

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/27/politics/budget-deal-cost-problems/

    ​Like the Reagan asterisk that quadrupled the debt.​

    http://www.nytimes.com/1986/05/11/books/in-the-land-of-the-magic-asterisk.html?pagewanted=all

    More GOP pretend time. At least it’s only $10B.

  10. VennData commented on Oct 28

    Please help us Remove Rauner.

    http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/remove-bruce-rauner-as

    The guy that cut taxes and refuses to raise them to balance the budget and can’t even come up with that ex-GOP governors support

    http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20151022/news/151029623/

    The Civic Federation says Rauner’s budget is unrealistic.

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150507/BLOGS02/150509877/civic-federation-rips-unrealistic-rauner-budget

    Moody’s and Fitch agree (Driving up our borrowing costs)

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20151019/NEWS02/151019818/fitch-downgrades-illinois-credit-rating-citing-budget-fight

    His own controller thinks he’s wrong.

    http://www.qconline.com/news/local/munger-says-rauner-should-give-up-union-attacks

    Please help Illinois.

  14. Jojo commented on Oct 28

    Douglas Holtz-Eakin
    President, American Action Forum
    Rethinking Employer-Based Benefits
    Updated: 10/13/2015

    Many Americans receive a long list of important benefits through their employers: life insurance, long-term disability insurance, accident and sickness insurance, dental/vision insurance, dependent care, flexible spending accounts, health insurance, legal assistance, free parking/parking subsidies, supplemental Medicare premiums, tuition reimbursement, and … the list goes on.

    In part, this is an accident of history. World War II wage and price controls precluded employers from giving the raises needed to hire and retain workers, but the central-planning bureaucracy decided that providing health insurance did not qualify as wages and, thus, not subject to tax. Employers had a way to give raises and the untaxed-fringe-benefit genie was out of the bottle.

    It is also, in part, bad policy. If workers are paid in cash, they can choose the benefits they value and want — not what their firm’s HR department dreams up. Even worse, because they are not taxed, benefits are a “cheaper” way to reward employees. The result is a bias against growth in cash wages and toward growth in benefits. Finally, the exclusion from taxes is a disguised subsidy — it represents genuine “spending” through the tax code — and the subsidy gets larger as tax rates go up; i.e., the subsidy is bigger for the more affluent.

    …

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/douglas-holtzeakin/rethinking-employer-based_b_8285150.html

    • VennData commented on Oct 28

      How often do your choose private jet travel to a golf weekend in Boca to cssa compensation? I do all the time. Nail the Netjets FAs and then cruise the titiie bars Saturday night in the company limo. Can get my ski weeneds in Aspen to cover a little medicinal side trip too.

    • willid3 commented on Oct 28

      i dont think we understand how employers few benefits. they really want to eliminate them. as in gone, and not increase the wages to replace them gone.

    • willid3 commented on Oct 28

      course that only applies non execs

      execs need as many benefits as they can get. like free use of the company planes, pensions, retirement health care, and much much more

  15. rd commented on Oct 28

    In case the gold bugs wonder where some of their gold comes from. You could say that these are the junior junior miners. It also highlights the importance of regulatory agencies like OSHA and MSHA, despite the pushback from the Koch brothers, Don Blankenship etc.

    http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/10/23/artisanal-mine-1/

    • VennData commented on Oct 28

      So what’s the complaint? Other than you don’t like the authorship? Based on a bold statement that the named author has published other, but unnamed pieces, you assert without citation are erroneous.

      – efrltd

    • VennData commented on Oct 28

      So what’s the complaint? Other than you don’t like the authorship? Based on a bold statement that the named author has published other, but unnamed pieces, you assert without citation are erroneous. So is this article right, wrong or indifferent? Badly written? Attrocious grammar? Any connection with AEI pieces, or on a different topic. Is it a factual piece, an opininon piece? – efrltd

  16. RW commented on Oct 28

    Context matters.


    Check Out Our Low, Low (Natural) Rates
    …all the complaints that the Fed is artificially keeping rates low are nonsense; rates are low because that’s what the real economy wants, and the Fed’s only alternative would be to create a depression.

    It also casts even more doubt on the wisdom of the Fed’s urge to raise rates. Nothing in the economic situation suggests that rates are too low right now. And don’t tell us that we need to start “normalizing”: all indications are that “normal” has changed a lot since 2008, and trying to set interest rates as if the old normal were still valid is a recipe for very bad outcomes. …

    NB: The world is a complex system and ‘this time’ is always different; the question is whether it is a difference that a significant difference makes.

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